A Look at NHL Expansion Teams

Originally created on 7/11

After reading ESPN's Ultimate Standings, I found myself with a bee in my bonnet. Writer Morty Ain dogs the Wild, saying "the on-ice product is merely mediocre: Minny has failed to make it beyond the first round the past five seasons." Of course, the fan in me wants to object, claiming any of several reasons why this application of the word 'mediocre' can only be a product of shoddy logic.

Is Ain's qualification for mediocrity really that solid? Advancing past the 1st round of the playoffs once in five years? Statistically speaking, losing the Conference Quarterfinals of the NHL playoffs places your team squarely in the middle of the pack. By definition, that is mediocrity.

5 years of nothing past the 1st playoff round seems much too common an occurance to me, though. The storied Edmonton Oilers did not make the playoffs at all from 1992 - 1996; the mighty Detroit Red Wings had a stretch of 17 years where they made the playoffs only twice, while the Wild have made the playoffs thrice in 8 seasons, and have not had 3 consecutive non-playoff years. Meanwhile, the Columbus Blue Jackets spent 7 years as a statistical doormat, followed by 1 playoff year, only now beginning to find a stride. Every team has their rough spots.

If the Wild are going through a mediocre patch, though, one has to wonder if it is simply because of their young age. Like hockey players, hockey teams need time to grow into their game. So, my question became focused on expansion teams, which were started from scratch in the NHL. While every team has to begin from scratch at some point, close to half the NHL's current teams began in another league, and had time to develop their players and their system before joining NHL. The Wild and the Blue Jackets are the NHL's youngest teams, each with only 8 seasons under their belts. How long should it take an expansion team to find some success? How long to make the playoffs; to advance beyond the first round; to win a division, to win the Stanley Cup? As the Wild are only now entering their 9th season in any league, I looked at every expansion team in NHL history, and roughly sorted them according to the successes of their first 10 seasons.

• New York Islanders, 1972: made the playoffs 8 of those first 10 seasons, making it past the first round in 7, winning 4 division championships, and 3 consecutive Stanley Cups. They would win one more Cup in in 1983 to make it 4-in-a-row.
• Philadelphia Flyers, 1967: made the playoffs 8 of the first 10 seasons, past the first round in 5, and added 4 division championships, and 2 Stanley Cups, in '74 and '75.
• St Louis Blues, 1967: made the playoffs 9 of the first 10 seasons, past the first round in 5, won 3 division championships. The Blues have never won a Stanley Cup, but their playoff streak extended for 25 seasons.
• Buffalo Sabres, 1970: made the playoffs 7 of their first 10 seasons, past the first round in 5, won 2 division championships.
• Ottawa Senators, 1992: made the playoffs 6 of theif first 10 seasons, past the first round in 2, won 2 division championships. Their first 4 seasons were just abyssmal, each year posting less than 20 wins or 25% of games played. They turned around quickly, though, and put together 10 consecutive playoff seasons with 4 division championships in that stretch.
• San Jose Sharks, 1991: made the playoffs 6 of their first 10 seasons, past the first round in 3.
• L.A. Kings, 1967: made the playoffs 6 of their first 10 seasons, past the first round in 3.
• Minnesota North Stars, 1967: made the playoffs 6 of their first 10 seasons, past the first round in 2. Now in Dallas.
• Atlanta Flames, 1972: made the playoffs 8 of their first 10 seasons, past the first round in 1. Now in Calgary.
• Pittsburgh Penguis, 1967: made the playoffs 5 of their first 10 seasons, past the first round in 2
• Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, 1993: made the playoffs 3 of their first 10 seasons, past the first round in 2. Now the Anaheim Ducks.
• Minnesota Wild, 2000: made the playoffs 3 of their 8 seasons, past the first round in 1, won 1 division championship in 2008.
• Florida Panthers, 1993: made the playoffs 3 of their first 10 seasons, past the first round in 1.
• Nashville Predators, 1998: made the playoffs 4 of their first 10 seasons.
• Atlanta Thrashers, 1999: made the playoffs 1 of their 9 seasons, won 1 division championship.
• California Seals, 1967: made the playoffs 2 of their 9 seasons. The Seals were never fated for anything more than the recycling bin, it seems. After 9 seasons of name changes and lost revenue, they were moved to Cleveland, and finally absorbed by the Minnesota North Stars.
• Columbus Blue Jackets, 2000: made the playoffs 1 of their 8 seasons. The Blue Jackets have matched the longest playoff droughts in this list, going the first 7 years with no cup dreams. This is probably more excusable since it was their earliest years. However, in their 8th year, they looked up and saw the playoffs. One more year, and they'll have tied the California Seals record. Let's hope they last longer than the Seals did.
• Tampa Bay Lightning, 1992: made the playoffs 1 of their first 10 seasons. The Lightning had a rough time of their youth, making the playoffs in the 4th season, but not again for 7 years. That year(2003), though, they also won their division. In 2004, they won both their division and the Stanley Cup.

When compiling my list, I noticed a trend of more recent expansions having less success, with the notable exception of the California Seals. If it's fair to say that, can it be explained by the fact that there were only 6 teams in the league until 1971? Can it be explained by rule changes or the league's relationship to the NHL Player's Association? ...or by the league's expansions procedures? Regardless of the explanation, if that observation is accurate, I would have to posit my Wild as overachievers.

Of the teams expanded since 1991, only the Sharks and the Senators made the playoffs more than half of their first 10 seasons, and only the Wild and the Thrashers won a division title in their first 10 seasons. The Wild are in a position to make the playoffs 5 of their first 10 seasons, which could move them up a few spots in the list. ...and if expansion teams really do have it tougher in the modern era, I will say confidently that the Wild should have been on the bottom of the list, along with their expansion cousins in Columbus. The Wild, however, have 3 playoff seasons in 8 years, and a championship in a division well-known to be very competetive. To me, this seems at least on schedule, possibly ahead.

If anyone has any insight into the effects of rule changes, or player's association agreements, or expansion procedures, I would love to hear your comments.